Monday, June 2, 2008

Clinton Knows the Super-Delegate Okey Doke...

Here is the million dollar question of the day: Is the 2008 Democratic primary going to end any time soon? Well... a couple of scenarios must be taken into serious consideration in order to conclude that answer. And... the bottom line is that all scenarios connect back in someway to the Super Delegates... as neither Senators Clinton or Obama can legitimately claim the nomination as the math stands today.

Let's examine where the situation stands at this moment in time.

#1 - People keep going to the polls in droves... voting for Senator Hillary Clinton...and she continues winning! The Super Delegates are paying attention to these wins: Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky, Florida, and Puerto Rico (states––minus Puerto Rico–– that any winner must carry in the Fall if they hope for any chance at the White House). The Super Delegates could end this race right now... but they must be wondering: Is Clinton the stronger candidate? What do the approximately 18 million voters who have cast their nod to Clinton have against Senator Barack Obama that they are not voting for him? Where will all those Clinton votes go in the General Election should she not make it to this year's Presidential ticket?

What a conundrum this is. My guess is that many of the SDs are not moving in mass... choosing rather to keep their powder dry to see what lies on the horizon.

#2 - Hillary Clinton knows the real deal on the Super Delegate okey doke. She understands quite well that undecided and decided Super Delegates are terms used by pundits and party loyalists... but these interchangeable terms––and people–– are relevant only for the moment!

Consequently, Clinton can afford to sit idly by as Obama's camp parades these "supposedly-decided-for-the-moment" Super Delegates who have vowed to endorse Obama, across our television screens one-by-one, every hour of every day from now 'til August... it means nothing. It's all just "hype", "drama", "theater". Clinton knows that until they get to the floor of the Democratic Convention in Denver (in August) and actually cast their one Super Delegate vote for her or Obama... this daily endorsement hullaballoo is mere 'words'... 'promises'... and political posturing.

Armed with that knowledge, Clinton may play this primary game for another 60-days, which allows her time to coax, cajole, and, yes, convince these Super Delegate deal breakers that she has the most popular votes, she can beat McCain in the General, she is the go-to-gal if they are serious about taking back the White House, she's won the BIG states, she is the whatever... fill in the blanks!

What a joke this is. Conventional wisdom says Clinton stays in the race for that one, last big Super Delegate dice roll at the Convention. The stakes are too high ...and the prize is too big for her to come this far and walk away now. What does she have to lose? Friends or favor in the Democratic party? PLEEZE!

So, my answer to the million dollar question is stay tuned... this primary is no where near over!

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